Friday, January 2, 2009

Indo-Pak nuclear war: How it could begin

The US intelligence agency had predicted way back in 1998 of a nuclear war that could take place between India and Pakistan, because of Pak army supported insurgency in Kashmir. At that time conditions were different. Today the conditions are more-less same as what the US think tank had suggested as a possible outcome in a report published by DNA.

Pakistan is still defiant on handing over the terrorists. The reasons being their power galore in Pakistan. It is known(in Pakistan) that the dreaded terrorist Maulana Masood Azhar is behind Benazir Bhutto's assassination. But despite all this knowledge there is little control of Pak president Asif Ali Zardari on Pakistan and hence he has to abet terror else risk his and his son's life.At the same time there is a pressure mound building up over the UPA government and Lok Sabha elections of 2009 are nearing.

A possible consequence: UPA government orders deployment of special small forces on border. Pakistani insurgents attack Indian army camps near the border. In retaliation, Indian army crosses the LOC in a counter attack and a full fledged war begins. With Air and artillery support, Indian army reaches Lahore. Pakistan's air force is nulled by surface to air missiles. Pakistan fearing its nuclear arsenal would be destroyed, tries to intimidate India by unleashing a small fission bomb over the Indian Army. India fires back a bigger nuclear bomb. Pakistan in return launches Ghauri class missile with a 20 tonne nuclear payload. India responds by a 200 tonne nuclear bomb. War Game over. Pakistan surrenders. UN peace keeping force arrives.

It seems to be a gloomy prognosis for this fight against terror. I have my reasons, which I'd be explaining in future posts, on why Pakistan will never handover terrorists and a war would be inevitable.